The Prime Minister of ousted President Bazoum, Ouhoumoudou Mahamadou, said it will be near impossible for any of Burkina Faso, Mali and Guinea to send troops into Niger. He said their countries are separated by jihadists, who they have fought for years and have been unable to defeat.
In other words, he insinuates that those three countries would have to defeat the jihadists before getting into Niger.
He said this after Burkina Faso, Mali and Guinea declared their support for the putschists; with Burkina Faso and Mali stating categorically that they will support Niger militarily should ECOWAS move in. The three countries, though members of ECOWAS, are currently led by soldiers who executed coups.
The reason for the show of solidarity may not be far from the assumption that if ECOWAS succeeds in shutting down the military rebellion in Niger and reinstating Mr Bazoum, Burkina Faso, Mali and Guinea could be next.
In a similar development, the defense chiefs of the four countries were absent as ECOWAS Chiefs of Defence Staff (CDS) met in Abuja last week. Guinea, Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso were absent from the meeting, offering no official explanations.
At last Sunday’s meeting, ECOWAS asked the Chiefs of Defense Staff to meet to discuss the possibility of military intervention. The meetings were held between Wednesday and Friday last week.
“All the elements that would go into any eventual intervention have been brought out here and been refined, including the timing, the resources needed and the how and where and when we are going to deploy such a force,” said Abdel-Fatau Musah, ECOWAS commissioner for political affairs, peace and security at the meeting of defense chiefs.
However, hours after the deadline, it continues to be highly unlikely that ECOWAS will deploy troops to Niger, especially as opposition to troops deployment mounts in Niger’s large and powerful neighbor, Nigeria, which would be expected to provide the large number of ground forces needed.
ECOWAS Chair and Nigeria’s President, Bola Tinubu, last week notified the National Assembly of the ECOWAS resolutions including the possibility of troops deployment. Parliamentary approval would be needed to deploy Nigeria’s troops.
But the Senate opposed troops deployment and advised President Tinubu and ECOWAS to explore a political solution to the crisis.
Just like the National Assembly, several groups have advised ECOWAS to adopt diplomatic means to resolve the situation in Niger as possible escalation would be detrimental to the security of the region.
Non-military options are advised to address the situation. The options, should focus on securing the release of President Bazoum and a transition timetable as a military intervention could see the execution of Mr Bazoum by the putschists.
